The Optimism Index fell by 2.1 points in February to 100.7, the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98 but is 4.4 points off its most recent peak of 105.1 in December. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, three increased and seven decreased. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 104, the second highest reading. Small business owners have experienced uncertainty whiplash over the last four months with the Index falling from October’s 110 reading to 86 in December and then back up to 104.
A seasonally adjusted net 15% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down 3 points from January. The percentage of owners thinking it’s a good time to expand was 12%, down 5 percentage points (points) from the previous month. 38% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 3 points from January.
A net negative 12% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months down 2 points from January. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 10 points from January to a net 32% seasonally adjusted. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 6 points from January to a net 14%. The frequency of reports of positive profit trends was a net negative 24% (seasonally adjusted), 1 point worse than January.
A net 4 percent of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, up 1 point from January. Twenty-four percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 3 points from January and the lowest since May 2022. A net 2% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts (down 1 point).
Read the NFIB report.
