Consumer sentiment decreased 3.3 points month-over-month in November to 50.3, down 21.5 points from one year ago, according to preliminary results of the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The Current Economic Conditions Index decreased 6.3 points from the previous month to 52.3 and down 11.6 points from the previous year. The Consumer Expectations Index decreased by 1.3 points to 49.0, 27.9 points lower than the November 2024 Index.
Consumer sentiment fell back about 6% this November, led by a 17% drop in current personal finances and a 11% decline in year-ahead expected business conditions. With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy. This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation. One key exception: consumers with the largest tercile of stock holdings posted a notable 11% increase in sentiment, supported by continued strength in stock markets. Interviews for this release closed prior to Tuesday’s elections.
Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up from 4.6% last month to 4.7% this month and remained well below readings in May in the wake of the initial announcements of major tariff changes. Long-run inflation expectations declined from 3.9% last month to 3.6% in November. These expectations are now below the midpoint between the readings seen a year ago and the 2025 peak reading from April.
Read the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers release.
