Consumer inflation expectations in December 2025 increased at the short-term horizon but remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s most recent Survey of Consumer Expectations. At the same time, expectations for finding a job dropped to their lowest level in the history of the survey.
Median inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.4% at the one-year-ahead horizon in December, according to the New York Fed. They were unchanged at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons, both at 3%.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 1.4 percentage points to 15.2%. However, the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell by 4.2 percentage points to 43.1%, a series low. The decline was driven by respondents with annual household incomes below $100,000 and was most pronounced for those above age 60 and those with a high school degree or less.
The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3% in December, according to the survey. Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of households reporting it is harder to get credit and a smaller share of households reporting it is easier to get credit. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.6 percentage points to 15.3%, the highest reading since April 2020.
