Economic uncertainty could test U.S. banks’ revenues and profitability in 2026, and many institutions will likely need to make major decisions on stablecoins and artificial intelligence, according to a new report by the auditing and consulting firm Deloitte.
In its recently released 2026 banking and capital markets outlook, the firm noted the range of economic scenarios for the year “remains wide” with the effects of tariffs on inflation and economic growth still unclear. While most banks will enter the year on strong footing, “they may face some headwinds in net interest income in 2026, driven largely by lower rates and a slowing economy.”
The passage of the Genius Act earlier this year created a regulatory framework for payment stablecoins, which could lead to deposit disruption but also provide new business opportunities for banks, according to Deloitte. “2026 could be a pivotal year to develop strategies and address the risks related to stablecoins. In response, banks will likely need to bolster their infrastructure and capabilities as alternatives to deposits and payment rails emerge.”
As for AI, many banks have “only achieved sporadic tactical wins rather than true strategic transformation” in adopting the technology. Among other things, the report recommended that banks adopt a clear vision with concrete outcomes for AI adoption, and that they establish clear ownership and governance to see that vision made reality.
