The Optimism Index fell by 3.3 points in March to 97.4, falling below the 51-year average of 98. This was the largest monthly decline in the Optimism Index since June 2022. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, two increased, seven decreased, and one was unchanged. Better business conditions and sales expectations contributed the most to the decline in the Index. The Uncertainty Index fell 8 points from February’s second highest reading to 96.
A seasonally adjusted net 12% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down 3 percentage points (points) from February. The last time hiring plans were this low was April 2024. Job creation plans are in weak territory compared to recent history. The percentage of owners thinking it’s a good time to expand was 9%, down 3 points from the previous month. 40% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 2 points from February. The difficulty in filling open positions is particularly acute in the construction, transportation, and manufacturing industries. Openings were the lowest in the agriculture and wholesale industries.
A net negative 11% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up 1 point from February. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 6 points from February to a net 26% seasonally adjusted. This is the largest monthly decrease since December 2022.
The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 11 points from February to a net 3%. The frequency of reports of positive profit trends was a net negative 28% (seasonally adjusted), which was 4 points worse than February. Among owners reporting lower profits, 35% blamed weaker sales, 18% cited usual seasonal change, 11% cited the rise in the cost of materials, and 8% cited labor costs.
A net 4% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, unchanged from February. 28% of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, up 4 points from February’s reading and the lowest since May 2022. A net 6% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, up 4 points from February and the largest monthly increase since September 2023.
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