The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rose 4 points to 48 in February. This is the third consecutive monthly increase in builder confidence and the highest level since August 2023.
“Buyer traffic is improving as even small declines in interest rates will produce a disproportionate positive response among likely home purchasers,” said NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “And while mortgage rates will remain too high for many prospective buyers, we anticipate that due to pent-up demand, many more buyers will enter the marketplace if mortgage rates continue to decline this year.”
“With future expectations of Fed rate cuts in the latter half of 2024, NAHB is forecasting that single-family starts will rise about 5% this year,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “But as builders break ground on more homes, lot availability is expected to be a growing concern, along with persistent labor shortages. And as a further reminder that the recovery will be bumpy as buyers remain sensitive to interest rate and construction cost changes, the 10-year Treasury rate is up more than 40 basis points since the beginning of the year.”
The HMI index charting current sales conditions increased 4 points to 52, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose 3 points to 60 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers increased 4 points to 33.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased 3 points to 57, the Midwest gained 2 points to 36, the South rose 5 points to 46 and the West registered a 6-point gain to 38.
Read the NAHB release.
