New York Fed: Consumers expect short-term inflation rise, improve longer term

Inflation expectations increased slightly in the short- and medium-term, while decreasing in the longer term, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations released today. Employment expectations were mixed, with unemployment expectations deteriorating and perceived job-loss risk improving. Expectations for credit conditions deteriorated slightly.

Median inflation expectations increased by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points at the one- and three-year-ahead horizons to 3.7% and 3.0%, respectively. In contrast, median inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8% at the five-year-ahead horizon.

Mean unemployment expectations increased by 1.6 percentage points to 40.1%, equal to its 12-month trailing average. Median expected growth in household income increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%, remaining below the series 12-month trailing average of 3.5%. Perceptions of households’ current financial situations deteriorated slightly in September, with more respondents reporting being worse off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations improved with more respondents expecting to be better off a year from now.

Credit access perception compared to a year ago deteriorated slightly. The share of households reporting that it is more difficult to obtain credit now than a year ago increased, while the share reporting that it is easier declined. Similarly, respondents’ views about future credit availability deteriorated slightly. The share of respondents expecting tighter credit conditions a year from now increased, while the share expecting looser credit conditions declined.