Most banking executives believe that interest rates won’t peak until the first half of 2023, according to a new survey by financial technology firm IntraFi. The company polled executives at more than 450 banks nationwide and found that 63% of respondents believe the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates well into the first half of next year. However, most bankers believe the central bank will only increase the federal funds target rate by another 100 to 150 basis points before leveling off.
A majority of respondents (58%) believe the Fed will overcorrect for inflation, with 32% saying the Fed is on the right track and 10% saying the agency isn’t acting aggressively enough. More than half of bank executives (52%) believe the U.S. will enter a recession by the end of the year, with another 36% believing a recession will start in the first half of 2023.
In terms of what banks are seeing, 83% of bankers reported higher funding costs, an increase of 29 percentage points from the second quarter of 2022. Ninety-five percent said they expect funding costs to increase over the next year. A majority of banks (56%) also predicted that loan demand would decline over the next twelve months. Bank access to capital remained stable with 75% of respondents experiencing no change over the previous 12 months and 70% anticipating no change in the year ahead.