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ABA DataBank: Real GDP growth slowed in 2026 Q2

July 30, 2026
Reading Time: 1 min read
Q3 GDP expands at the fastest pace in two years

Real gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 1.5%, according to the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is below market expectations for 2.0% growth and slower than the 2.1% annual rate recorded in the first quarter. Consumer spending and fixed investment were the largest contributors to growth, adding 2.12 percentage points and 1.20 pp, respectively. In contrast, change in private inventories (-0.67 pp), net exports (-1.01 pp), and government spending (-0.14 pp) all weighed on overall GDP growth.

The ABA Office of the Chief Economist believes that there are risks to growth including elevated interest rates and oil prices. However, strong investment in AI infrastructure and resilient consumer spending provide support to economic activity. Therefore, the outlook for bank and credit performance remains favorable.

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