Real gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026 according to the advance estimate, below market expectations of an increase of 2.2%. This figure is up from 0.5% posted in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting upturns in government spending and exports, and an acceleration in investment offsetting a deceleration in consumer spending. Net exports subtracted 1.3 percentage points from growth. Positive contributions of consumption (1.08 pp), investment (1.48 pp), and government spending (0.73 pp) added to growth.
The ABA Office of the Chief Economist observes that the initial estimate of first quarter GDP points to an expanding economy as government spending rebounded following the resolution of the shutdown from late 2025. Headline growth is supported by solid personal consumption and private investment, even amid higher energy prices and heightened global uncertainty. Continued consumer and business spending could support loan demand and help sustain credit quality.
