The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. national home price index recorded a 1.3% annual gain for December 2025, down from the 1.4% annualized rise in November. Nine of the 20 major markets declined. Regional divergence continues to persist as home price movement in the Midwest and Northeast outpaced the South. Home prices in Chicago and New York rose 5.3% and 5.1% year-over-year, respectively, while home prices in Sunbelt cities continued their downward trend, such as Tampa (-2.9%) and Phoenix (-1.5%).
ABA’s Office of the Chief Economist believes that the moderate December home price appreciation points to stabilizing home values. Borrowers’ home equity increases as home values rise, which could make defaults less likely and reduce losses in the event of default. As inflation and wage growth outpace home price appreciation, affordability concerns may abate and support mortgage loan demand.
