Consumer inflation expectations were stable at the short- and longer-term horizons, but fell sharply at the medium-term horizon, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for July. Median one- and five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged in July at 3% and 2.8%, respectively. Median three-year-ahead inflation expectations declined sharply by 0.6 percentage points to 2.3%, hitting a series low since the survey’s inception in 2013.
Median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3% in July, according to the New York Fed. Median household spending growth expectations fell by 0.2 percentage points to 4.9%.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated in July, with the share of households reporting it is harder to obtain credit than one year ago increasing. However, expectations for future credit availability improved in July. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by one percentage point to 13.3%, the measure’s highest reading since April 2020.
