Final results show consumer sentiment increased 1.5 points in August to 67.9, down 1.5 points from one year ago. The Current Economic Conditions Index fell 1.4 points from the previous month to 61.3, 14.2 points lower than year-ago-levels. The Consumer Expectations Index grew 3.3 points to 72.1, 6.7 points higher than the August 2023 Index .
“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, inching up 1.4 index points. With election developments dominating headlines this month, sentiment for Democrats climbed 6% in the wake of Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee for president. For Republicans, sentiment moved in the opposite direction, falling 5% this month. Sentiment of Independents, who remain in the middle, rose 3%. The survey shows that 41% of consumers believe that Harris is the better candidate for the economy, while 38% chose Trump. In comparison, between May and July, Trump had a 5-point advantage over Biden on the economy. Overall, expectations strengthened for both personal finances and the five-year economic outlook, which reached its highest reading in four months, consistent with the fact that election developments can influence future expectations but are unlikely to alter current assessments,” said University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.
Year-ahead inflation expectations came in at 2.9% for the second straight month. These expectations ranged between 2.3 to 3.0% in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations came in at 3.0%, unchanged from that last five months. These expectations remain somewhat elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.
Read the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers release.
For consumer sentiment you can just subtract the monthly values from each other. You don’t need to worry about the percent change. [MP1]
