ABA Banking Journal
No Result
View All Result
  • Topics
    • Ag Banking
    • Commercial Lending
    • Community Banking
    • Compliance and Risk
    • Cybersecurity
    • Economy
    • Human Resources
    • Insurance
    • Legal
    • Mortgage
    • Mutual Funds
    • Payments
    • Policy
    • Retail and Marketing
    • Tax and Accounting
    • Technology
    • Wealth Management
  • Newsbytes
  • Podcasts
  • Magazine
    • Subscribe
    • Advertise
    • Magazine Archive
    • Newsletter Archive
    • Podcast Archive
    • Sponsored Content Archive
SUBSCRIBE
ABA Banking Journal
  • Topics
    • Ag Banking
    • Commercial Lending
    • Community Banking
    • Compliance and Risk
    • Cybersecurity
    • Economy
    • Human Resources
    • Insurance
    • Legal
    • Mortgage
    • Mutual Funds
    • Payments
    • Policy
    • Retail and Marketing
    • Tax and Accounting
    • Technology
    • Wealth Management
  • Newsbytes
  • Podcasts
  • Magazine
    • Subscribe
    • Advertise
    • Magazine Archive
    • Newsletter Archive
    • Podcast Archive
    • Sponsored Content Archive
No Result
View All Result
No Result
View All Result
ADVERTISEMENT
Home Economy

Bank economists: ‘Soft landing’ odds have improved but recession risks remain

September 11, 2023
Reading Time: 1 min read
Bank economists: ‘Soft landing’ odds have improved but recession risks remain

The U.S. economy is likely to dodge a recession despite an expected loss of momentum in economic growth over the next few quarters, according to the latest forecast of the American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee, released today. The committee, composed of 14 chief economists from some of North America’s largest banks, sees real economic growth slowing from 2.1% annualized during the first three quarters of 2023 to less than 1% annualized over the following three quarters. Momentum then improves slightly in the latter part of 2024, although the pace of activity remains below potential.

While the median committee forecast does not include any quarterly contractions, considerable concerns about a mild recession remain. Recession risks center primarily around the delayed impact of monetary tightening, deteriorating credit availability and high credit costs, but also include event risks such as a prolonged federal government shutdown or renewed flaring of geopolitical tensions, according to the EAC. The group consensus is that near-term recession risks have come down but are still significant for 2024, approaching 50%.

Consistent with slowing growth, the EAC expects various measures of inflation to ease close to the Federal Reserve’s target. The committee’s forecast is that consumer inflation will decline from around 4% annualized over 2023 to just above 2% in 2024.

“The odds of the Fed achieving a soft landing look much better today than they did six months ago,” said Simona Mocuta, EAC chair and chief economist at State Street Global Advisors. “However, the battle against inflation is not yet won, so the Fed must remain vigilant. At the same time, there is a better balance between supply and demand across the board, in goods, services and labor markets. This helps the ongoing disinflation process.”

ADVERTISEMENT
Tags: Economic Advisory Committee
ShareTweetPin

Related Posts

CFPB urges states to ban ‘junk fees,’ revamp consumer protection laws

Agencies update host-state loan-to-deposit ratios

Compliance and Risk
May 12, 2025

The federal banking agencies issued updated host-state loan-to-deposit ratios that they will use to determine compliance with Section 109 of the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act.

ABA, associations urge Congress to overturn CFPB credit card late fees rule

Federal budget reconciliation tax package includes ACRE Act, other ABA priorities

Ag Banking
May 12, 2025

Congressional leaders unveiled a federal budget reconciliation tax package that contains several banking industry priorities, including language to expand access to affordable real estate credit in rural areas, as championed by ABA.

Report: Republicans push back against proposed cuts to CDFI Fund

Report: Republicans push back against proposed cuts to CDFI Fund

Community Banking
May 12, 2025

Several congressional Republicans say they do not support a proposal by President Trump to redirect funds away from the CDFI Fund.

ABA, associations: Proposed tax bill will help U.S. companies with foreign rivals

ABA, associations: Proposed tax bill will help U.S. companies with foreign rivals

Economy
May 12, 2025

ABA joined a coalition of associations in voicing support for legislation to make permanent tax reforms that help U.S. companies compete against foreign firms.

U.S. Supreme Court rules CFPB’s funding structure is constitutional

With Trump signing repeal of CFPB overdraft rule, ABA to drop lawsuit

Compliance and Risk
May 9, 2025

President Trump has signed into law an ABA-championed resolution overturning the CFPB’s limits on overdraft fees.

CFPB claims ‘complex’ pricing drives up cost of financial products

CFPB rescinds dozens of guidance documents

Compliance and Risk
May 9, 2025

The CFPB announced it is rescinding dozens of guidance documents on topics such as fair lending, overdraft fees, disclosure policies and consumer information requests to large banks and credit unions.

NEWSBYTES

Agencies update host-state loan-to-deposit ratios

May 12, 2025

Federal budget reconciliation tax package includes ACRE Act, other ABA priorities

May 12, 2025

Report: Republicans push back against proposed cuts to CDFI Fund

May 12, 2025

SPONSORED CONTENT

Choosing the Right Account Opening Platform: 10 Key Considerations for Long-Term Success

Choosing the Right Account Opening Platform: 10 Key Considerations for Long-Term Success

April 25, 2025
Outsourcing: Getting to Go/No-Go

Outsourcing: Getting to Go/No-Go

April 5, 2025
Six Payments Trends Driving the Future of Transactions

Six Payments Trends Driving the Future of Transactions

March 15, 2025
AI for Banks: A Starter Guide for Community and Regional Institutions

AI for Banks: A Starter Guide for Community and Regional Institutions

March 1, 2025

PODCASTS

Podcast: Accelerating banking for quick-service restaurants

May 8, 2025

How a Georgia community bank supports government-guaranteed lending nationwide

May 1, 2025

Podcast: Quantum computing’s shakeup in payments, cybersecurity

April 24, 2025
ADVERTISEMENT

American Bankers Association
1333 New Hampshire Ave NW
Washington, DC 20036
1-800-BANKERS (800-226-5377)
www.aba.com
About ABA
Privacy Policy
Contact ABA

ABA Banking Journal
About ABA Banking Journal
Media Kit
Advertising
Subscribe

© 2025 American Bankers Association. All rights reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • Topics
    • Ag Banking
    • Commercial Lending
    • Community Banking
    • Compliance and Risk
    • Cybersecurity
    • Economy
    • Human Resources
    • Insurance
    • Legal
    • Mortgage
    • Mutual Funds
    • Payments
    • Policy
    • Retail and Marketing
    • Tax and Accounting
    • Technology
    • Wealth Management
  • Newsbytes
  • Podcasts
  • Magazine
    • Subscribe
    • Advertise
    • Magazine Archive
    • Newsletter Archive
    • Podcast Archive
    • Sponsored Content Archive

© 2025 American Bankers Association. All rights reserved.