Fed’s Clarida: Pandemic Recession May Be ‘Briefest in U.S. History’

While the pandemic-related recession was by far the deepest one in postwar history, “it also may go into the record books as the briefest recession in U.S. history,” Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said today. Despite the surge in new COVID-19 cases that were reported this summer in a number of states, “the flow of macrodata received since May has been surprisingly strong, and GDP growth in the third quarter is estimated by many forecasters to have rebounded at perhaps a 25 to 30% annual rate,” he explained.

“I must also acknowledge that the economic outlook is unusually uncertain, and, moreover that the ultimate course the economy follows will depend on the course of the virus, social-distancing norms, and mitigation efforts put in place to contain it,” Clarida added. “While economic recovery since the spring collapse has been robust, let us not forget that full economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession has a long way to go.”

Clarida will be a keynote speaker at ABA’s Unconventional Convention next week. Other keynote speakers will include former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, CNN host Van Jones, FDIC Chairman Jelena McWilliams, former Whole Foods Markets co-CEO Walter Robb, CNN political analyst Bakari Sellers, CBS News political analyst Leslie Sanchez and Yale psychologist Laurie Santos. ABA is offering special registration discounts for this event, along with a “bring the bank” option, through which institutions can register up to 25 bankers for less than the price of six individual registrations.