Consumers’ Expectations for Home Price Growth Hold Steady

Americans’ expectations for home price changes in 2018 remained on par with 2017’s figures, according to results from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2018 SCE Housing Survey, an annual companion to the Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey showed home price growth at the one-year outlook fell to 4.65 percent, down slightly from 5.1 percent in 2017. Home price growth expectations at the five-year outlook ticked up slightly from last year, coming in at 3 percent. The majority of respondents — 65 percent — continue to view housing as a good financial investment.

Consumers’ expectations for future mortgage rates also held steady in 2018. The outlook at the one-year horizon was 5.5 percent, while the outlook at three years was 6.5 percent. Among renters, the preference for homeownership weakened, with 67.3 percent saying they had a strong preference for buying a home instead of renting, down from 72.3 percent last year. The percentage of renters who view obtaining a mortgage as difficult also ticked up to 67.5 percent from 65 percent in 2017. The percentage of owners who said they expect to refinance over the next year fell to 8.9 percent.