According to the third and final estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, below market expectations of 0.7%. This figure, released today, is down from 4.4% in Q3 and down 0.2 percentage points from the second estimate, reflecting a downward revision to investment concentrated in wholesale trade. Annual GDP growth was 2.1% in 2025.
ABA’s Office of the Chief Economist believes the third estimate of Q4 GDP shows that while the U.S. economy expanded at the end of 2025, it was at a more moderate pace than initially expected. Despite the downward revision in Q4, GDP growth remains positive and loan demand could remain healthy.
