The American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee expects the U.S. economy to continue expanding through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. The committee’s latest forecast also expects inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target due in part to geopolitical events, including trade policy and the ongoing military action in the Middle East.
The committee — made up of chief economists from some of North America’s largest banks — projects real economic growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, a modest increase from their September 2025 survey.
“Labor market uncertainties and persistent price pressures continue to weigh on the outlook, yet the economy is still growing at a measured pace,” said Beth Ann Bovino, committee chair and chief economist at U.S. Bank. “The group anticipates positive economic performance this year and next, supported by solid consumer spending and business investment, as well as a rebound in government spending after the 2025 shutdown.”
Labor market worries have declined slightly since the committee’s previous meeting. Members expect the unemployment rate to rise and peak at 4.5% in the middle of 2026 before edging down slightly to 4.3% toward the end of next year. The committee also expects some improvement in the breadth of job growth.
“While the committee sees improvement, we’re still in this low fire, low hire economy,” Bovino added. “Outside of healthcare, the economy lost jobs in 2025, creating challenges for workers as businesses navigate today’s economic uncertainties.”
