Consumer inflation expectations in April were unchanged over the short term, increased over the medium term and decreased over the longer term, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s most recent Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median inflation expectations held at 3.6% at the one-year-ahead horizon, increased by 0.2 percentage points at the three-year-ahead horizon to 3.2% and fell 0.2 percentage points at the five-year-ahead horizon to 2.7%.
Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.5% in April, the lowest reading since December 2023. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.3%.
The median expected growth in household income decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% in April, the lowest reading since April 2021, according to the New York Fed. Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved, with the net share of households reporting it is easier versus harder to obtain credit than one year ago increasing. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.3 percentage points to 13.9%.
