According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the headline consumer price index rose 0.4% month over month in October, outpacing market expectations of 0.3% but lower than the 0.6% in September. Key components that contributed to the elevated number month over month included transportation services (0.8%), energy (0.7%), and food (0.5%). Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, came in at 0.3% month over month, also above expectations of 0.2% and matching prior month’s reading of 0.3%. There are no year-over-year figures for this reading because there was no CPI report in October 2025 due to the 2025 government shutdown.
The ABA Office of the Chief Economist believes October’s elevated CPI reading reflects the ongoing affordability pressures facing the American economy. Inflation continues to be above the Fed’s 2% target, which may weigh on sentiment, purchasing power and real economic growth. Persistent inflation, combined with tighter household and small-business balance sheets, could impact consumer and commercial credit performance.
