Consumer inflation expectations remained unchanged at the short-, medium- and long-term horizons in October, according to the most recent Survey of Consumer Expectations by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one-year, three-year and five-year horizons at 3.9%, 3.3% and 3%, respectively, the New York Fed said. Median inflation uncertainty — or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes — decreased at the one- and three-year horizons and was unchanged at the five-year horizon.
The median expected growth in household income declined by 0.1 percentage point to 3% in October. Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago and expectations for future credit availability were roughly unchanged. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.6 percentage points to 13.8%, its highest level since December 2025.
