Final results show consumer sentiment increased 0.4 points in October to 70.5, up 6.7 points from one year ago. The Current Economic Conditions Index increased 1.6 points from the previous month to 64.9, 5.7 points lower than year-ago levels. The Consumer Expectations Index edged down 0.3 points to 74.1, 14.8 points higher than the October 2023 Index.
“Consumer sentiment lifted for the third consecutive month, inching up to its highest reading since April 2024. Sentiment is now more than 40% above the June 2022 trough. This month’s increase was primarily due to modest improvements in buying conditions for durables, in part due to easing interest rates. The upcoming election looms large over consumer expectations. Overall, the share of consumers expecting a Harris presidency fell from 63% last month to 57% in October. Sentiment of Republicans, who believe that a Trump presidency would be better for the economy, rose 8% on growing confidence that their preferred candidate would be the next president. In contrast, sentiment declined 1% for Democrats. As usual, Independents remain in between, with a 4% gain in sentiment this month. Regardless of the eventual winner, a sizable share of consumers will likely update their economic expectations based on the results of the election.”
“Year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged from last month at 2.7%. The current reading falls within the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations edged down from 3.1% last month to 3.0% this month, remaining modestly elevated relative to the range of readings seen in the two years pre-pandemic.”
Read the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers release.
