Real gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, according to the advance estimate. This was above market expectations of 3.2% growth and accelerated from a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter. Private domestic investment and consumer spending were the largest contributors to growth, adding 3.27 and 2.52 percentage points, respectively. Private domestic investment surged 19.4%, driven in part by a 20.9% increase in equipment investment while residential fixed investment fell 3.3% from the prior quarter. The increase in private inventories added 1.61 points, offsetting the drag in net exports (-3.32 points) as goods imports jumped 26.4%.
The ABA Office of the Chief Economist believes that persistent investment in AI infrastructure and resilient consumer spending continue to support economic activity. However, risk factors such as inflation and higher interest rates remain as potential headwinds, contributing to weak residential investment. The overall outlook for bank and credit performance is still strong.
