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New York Fed: Inflation expectations improved in July

August 7, 2026
Reading Time: 1 min read
New York Fed: Consumer inflation expectations mostly hold steady

Consumer inflation expectations in July decreased slightly at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its most recent Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Median inflation expectations at the one-year-ahead horizon decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6% in July. The three-year and five-year-ahead horizons were unchanged at 3.3% and 3%, respectively.

The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3% in July. Median one-year-ahead household spending growth expectations slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%, falling slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 5%.

Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago declined, with the net share of households reporting it is harder to get credit increasing. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.2 percentage points to 12%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 12.7%.

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