Consumer household inflation expectations rose in June for short- and medium-term horizons, while gas price growth expectations fell, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s most recent Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Median inflation expectations at the one-year ahead horizon increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in June, the highest level since September 2023, and by 0.2 ppt to 3.3% at the three-year-ahead horizon, the highest level since June 2022. They were unchanged at 3% at the five-year-ahead horizon.
Gas price growth expectations declined by 3.5 ppts to 1.5%, the lowest level observed since August 2022.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 1.0 ppt to 14.1%, and the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.2 ppt to 44.9%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a larger share reporting a better financial situation; however, expectations for future credit availability deteriorated slightly, with a larger share of respondents expecting that it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead.
