Consumer inflation expectations in December 2024 were unchanged at the short-term horizon, increased at the medium-term horizon and decreased at the longer-term horizon, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey also showed that average perceived likelihoods of job loss, voluntary job separation and finding a job in the event of a job loss all declined.
Median inflation expectations in December were unchanged at 3% at the one-year horizon, increased to 3.0% from 2.6% at the three-year horizon, and declined to 2.7% from 2.9% at the five-year horizon, according to the New York Fed. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months declined by 1.6 percentage points to 11.9%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also declined by 2 percentage points to 18.2%. However, the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost declined sharply, to 50.2% from 54.1%.
Median expected growth in household income declined by 0.3 percentage points to 2.8% in December. Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.8%. Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased to 14.2% from 13.2%.
